Trump holds slight leads over Harris in 3 key battleground states: Polling

Former President Trump pulled ahead of Vice President Harris in three key Sun Belt states, according to a set of polls published Monday from The New York Times and Siena College.

Trump maintained a 5-point lead over Harris, 50 percent to 45 percent, among likely voters in Arizona; he maintained a 4-point lead, 49 percent to 45 percent, among likely voters in Georgia; and he led by a narrow 2-point margin over Harris, 49 percent to 47 percent, among likely voters in North Carolina.

Across all three battleground states, Harris has seen a slight drop-off in support since it spiked in early August, after President Biden bowed out of the race and the vice president stepped in as the Democrats’ candidate.

Among registered voters in Arizona, Trump leads Harris, 49 percent to 45 percent – a reversal of the results last month, when Harris led Trump, 49 percent to 45 percent. Seven percent in both surveys said they don’t know or refused to answer.

Among registered voters in Georgia, Trump now leads Harris, 48 percent to 44 percent, with 8 percent saying they don’t know. Last month, Trump and Harris tied, at 47 percent each, and 6 percent saying they didn’t know.

Harris also lost her advantage among registered voters in North Carolina, where Trump now leads, 48 percent to 47 percent – a change from last month, when respondents favored Harris over Trump, 49 percent to 46 percent. Five percent in both surveys said they don’t know or refused to answer.

The new polling is good news for the Trump campaign, with North Carolina and Georgia especially critical to the former president’s chances at retaking the White House, the Times' pollsters noted. They added that these states are less critical for Harris’s path to the presidency, saying she could still win the election if she loses those three states, though it would be difficult.

The latest Decision Desk HQ/The Hill’s polling averages in all three states reveal a very close race. In Arizona and Georgia, Trump currently leads Harris by 0.1 percentage points, while he leads Harris by 0.5 percentage points in North Carolina, according to the polling averages.

The latest polls were conducted on Sept. 17-21, 2024, and included interviews with 713 registered voters in Arizona, 682 registered voters in Georgia and 682 registered voters in North Carolina. The margin of sampling error among likely voters was 4.4 percentage points in Arizona, 4.6 percentage points in Georgia, and 4.2 percentage points in North Carolina.