Harris holds 1-point lead over Trump

Vice President Harris is leading former President Trump by 1 percentage point in the 2024 presidential election, according to new polling released Monday.

A Harvard CAPS/Harris poll found Harris leading Trump by close to a point-and-a-half among registered voters when respondents were asked whom they would choose for president if the election were held today between the two. Harris received close to 48 percent support while Trump received more than 46 percent. Close to 6 percent of respondents said they were unsure or did not know.

In a scenario where voters are forced to choose, Harris leads Trump by 2 points, at 51 percent support to 49 percent.

“The race is deadlocked though Harris appears to [be] gaining ever so slightly with improved messaging and shoring up weakness. This race remains on a razor’s edge,” said Mark Penn, the poll’s co-director.

The presidential election is coming down to the wire, with less than a month before voters choose which candidate returns to the White House.

An aggregate of national surveys compiled by The Hill/Decision Desk HQ shows Harris leading Trump roughly 50 percent support to 47 percent.

The Harvard CAPS/Harris polling suggested that Trump appears to see a tad more of his base coming home — ranging from 1 to 2 percentage points depending on whether the polling includes undecideds or not — when the polling focuses solely on the two candidates. Meanwhile, Harris appears to enjoy a 5-6 percentage point advantage over Trump among independent voters.

Democrats also appear to enjoy a slight lead when respondents are polled about a general congressional ballot, with 51 percent of respondents choosing Democrats and 49 percent choosing Republicans.

The survey was conducted from Oct. 11 to Oct. 13 among 3,145 registered voters by the Harris Poll and HarrisX; the poll includes 2,596 likely voters and 898 battleground state voters. It is a collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and the Harris Poll. The margin of error for the total sample is plus or minus 1.8 percentage points. 

Results were weighted for age within gender, region, race/ethnicity, marital status, household size, income, employment, education, political party and political ideology where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.