Vice President Harris is hunkering down in the “blue wall” states this week and making a direct appeal to Black men as concerns grow among Democrats about erosion among a key pillar in their coalition.
Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D), will blanket Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania this week, as polls show former President Trump running even with Harris in traditionally blue Rust Belt states that represent her likeliest path to the White House.
Democrats could once reliably count on winning all three states until Trump became the first GOP presidential candidate in decades to win them in 2016.
Here’s the state of play, according to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ averages:
MI: Trump +0.8
PA: Harris +0.7
WI: Trump +0.1
Via election analyst Nate Silver: "...a little bit of erosion for Harris in the Blue Wall states over the past week. Only a 1/2 point but half points matter. Don't think it's easy to say which campaign you'd rather be at this point: the race is a pure toss-up."
Harris is also making a push to shore up her support among Black men after former President Obama identified them as a potential soft spot for the Harris campaign.
In an interview with "Roland Martin Unfiltered" on Monday, Harris warned that Trump is "dangerous" for Black America.
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Harris on Monday released her “opportunity agenda” for Black men. It includes small business loans; training for mentorship programs; a national health initiative focused on diseases and disabilities that disproportionally impact Black men; a new regulatory framework for crypto assets; and legalizing recreational marijuana.
- Harris will hold a campaign event in Erie, Pa., on Monday to focus on small business opportunities for Black men.
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Harris on Tuesday will sit for an interview in Detroit with Charlamagne Tha God, whose “Breakfast Club” show is popular with Black men. She’ll also sit for interviews with other top Black media personalities, including The Shade Room’s Justin Carter.
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Over the weekend, Harris made an appeal to Black voters at a church in Greenville, N.C.
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The campaign has dispatched former President Clinton to rally Black voters in rural areas of Georgia and North Carolina.
The latest New York Times/Siena College poll found Harris at 78 percent support among Black voters. Democrats can typically count on their support being at 90 percent or more.
“I am concerned about Black men staying home or voting for Trump,” Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.) said Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union.”
Via CNN election analyst Harry Enten: “No matter how you splice the data, Trump seems to be the strongest Republican with Black voters since 1960. Young Black men in particular have trended right during Trump's runs (cutting the Dem margin by 40 pts from 2012). But Trump's doing historically well with Black women too.”
And now there’s a new Democratic panic: The Democratic voter registration advantage has disappeared in key battlegrounds, including Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Nevada.
Via The Hill’s Alexander Bolton: “…experts cite a lack of enthusiasm for the Biden administration brand and the Democratic Party, generally, as problems…The shift in voter registration away from Democrats in Pennsylvania and North Carolina may explain why the Harris campaign has tacked to the center on issues such as fracking and tax policy.”
As Harris’s polling advantage has faded, advisers such as David Plouffe have advocated for Democrats to tune out the noise and focus on the bottom line:
“This is going to be close. And this one may be close in more states than we’ve seen in a long time. We could have six, seven states come down to a point, point-and-a-half. That’s probably where this is headed.”
The New York Times/Siena College survey also found Harris’s support lagging among Latino voters, as Trump makes his final election push focused on immigration issues.
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The National Border Patrol Council endorsed Trump on Monday.
- Trump announced a new plan to hire an additional 10,000 border agents.
But Harris is also going on offense:
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The vice president will sit for an interview on Wednesday with Fox News anchor Bret Baier, as she continues her push to bring moderate Republicans into the fold.
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The Harris campaign is out with a new ad featuring the Republican mayor of Mesa, Ariz. John Giles says he’s voting for Harris because she puts “country over party” and would be “an adult” in the White House.
Democrats are eager to steer moderate voters toward Trump’s apocalyptic rhetoric in the final days of the campaign.
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Trump over the weekend suggested he’d use the National Guard and military to squash dissent from “the enemy within,” including “radical left lunatics.”
Perspectives:
CNN: Trump’s extreme vision for America hikes pressure on Harris.
The Hill: Harris must personalize her economic message.
The Hill: Trump’s polarizing style is the GOP’s missed opportunity.
The New Republic: Media must learn how to tell the truth about Trump.
Slate: Swing-state politics is rotting our brains and harming democracy.
The Guardian: Time is running out for Harris to break with Biden on Gaza.
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