Vice presidential debate: Crucial for Trump and Harris

Except for an occasional resounding soundbite, vice presidential debates haven’t had much impact on presidential elections. Will the faceoff between Republican Sen. JD Vance of Ohio and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) prove to be any different? 

The veep debate may not be a decisive, but it could be dramatic. The confrontation could be the last time voters see a confrontation between representatives of the national tickets. Win or lose in 2024, the GOP will need a new champion in 2028. Vance is trying to set himself up as Trump's successor.

Moreover, successful presidents make good choices, and the debate will showcase the first consequential choices that Trump and Harris have made as aspiring presidents. 

The first rule of a vice presidential pick is to do no harm. Like many other choices Trump has made, he struck out swinging on this one. Only Trump could have picked someone as unpopular as Vance. Disgraced Republican North Carolina gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson must have turned him down. I’m sure former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin would have jumped at the chance to drag Trump down, as she did John McCain in 2008.  

A recent national survey for the Associated Press highlights Vance’s deficiencies as Trump’s running mate. There are twice as many voters who dislike as like him. His negatives are even higher than they were in July.

Walz’s popularity offers a clear and compelling contrast to Vance’s negatives. Four out of every ten voters nationally have favorable views of the governor, whereas only three in ten hold unfavorable views. Walz comes across as a grandfatherly figure with a folksy charm which plays well in the northern tier swing states, but Vance profiles as the devil in disguise.  

The battle for voters in the electoral combat zone will be a fight to the finish. Both Walz and Vance were nominated to appeal to voters in the battleground states near Minnesota and Ohio in the Frostbelt. If a recent Marist survey in Michigan is any indication, Trump drew the short stick. A plurality of voters there like the Democratic No. 2, while the a plurality dislike Vance. 

Trump’s choice of Vance compares unfavorably with the former president’s selection of Mike Pence. Vance represents subtraction by addition. There was a clear rationale for the Pence pick, and it paid off in 2016. Trump had a reputation of being a playboy and needed the support of evangelical Christians. Pence, who wouldn’t even allow himself to be alone with women other than his wife, was just the right guy. Pence’s blessing guaranteed the overwhelming support of the religious right. 

But Pence, to his credit, demonstrated that he had a higher calling than loyalty to Trump. Pence signed off on congressional certification of Joe Biden’s Electoral College victory after Trump lost, and it cost him his good standing as a member of Trump-world. Trump wasn’t about to make the same mistake twice, so he picked a running mate who would back him, come Hell or high water.

Rather than adding anything to the troubled GOP ticket as Pence did in 2016 or as Walz does for the Democrats in 2024, Vance has doubled down on his running mate’s darkest instincts. The GOP ticket is a match made in hell. 

Veep candidates should take their cues from the candidate at the top of the ticket. But Vance is the tail that wags Trump’s dog. Vance first raised the tall tale of Haitian immigrants in Ohio eating peoples’ pets. Trump jumped the shark and embarrassed himself and his running mate by parroting the false charge during his frightful debate performance against Harris. 

Vance had one job, to rally the GOP base, but he has done as much or more to rally the Democratic base of female voters. His old remarks about “childless cat ladies” could gin up Democratic turnout in what could be a very close contest. Rather than taking his lead from Trump, Vance works at cross purposes with him. The guy at the top of the GOP ticket is trying to frame himself as a protector of women, whereas Vance gratuitously insulted them. 

Usually, in vice presidential debates, the players act more like surrogates than candidates. Vance will viciously attack Harris with a sledgehammer while Walz, with more finesse, will challenge Trump. We might learn as much or even more about the presidential hopefuls than their seconds. We will also discover a lot about the decisions that Harris and Trump might make as presidents from their running-mate selections.  

Brad Bannon is a Democratic pollster, CEO of Bannon Communications Research which polls for Democrats, labor unions and progressive issue groups. He hosts the popular progressive podcast on power, politics and policy, Deadline D.C. with Brad Bannon.