Trump up by 3 points over Harris in new Arizona poll

Former President Trump is up by 3 points over his rival Vice President Harris in an Arizona poll released Thursday. 

Trump garnered 51 percent support to Harris's 48 percent among likely voters in Arizona, according to a CBS News/YouGov poll released less than 20 days before Election Day. The former president’s lead is just within the survey’s margin of error. 

More Arizona voters, 46 percent, said they would be better off financially under Trump’s policies, compared to the 30 percent who said they would be better off under Harris. Around 49 percent said they would be worse off with Harris’s policies, while 39 percent said the same of Trump, according to the survey. 

Among the Grand Canyon State's voters whose major factor in this presidential election is the economy, 59 percent sided with Trump while 40 percent picked Harris. On the issue of the U.S.-Mexico border, Trump had a wider lead, amassing 79 percent support to the vice president’s 20 percent, according to the survey. 

The survey found that more Arizona voters support Trump’s plan for mass deportations of illegal immigrants than those do not. Forty-five percent opposed the plan while 55 percent of those surveyed supported it. Among Trump voters, the gap was far wider, with 93 percent supporting it and 7 percent opposing it. 

For likely Arizona voters whose priorities are abortion and democracy, Harris outpaced Trump. On abortion, 73 percent backed Harris while 27 percent backed the former president. The margin was slimmer on the issue of democracy, as 57 percent sided with the Democratic nominee while 42 percent picked Trump, according to the poll. 

Harris led the way among likely Latino voters in the state, garnering 56 percent support compared to Trump's 42 percent — a smaller lead than that of President Biden when he beat Trump in 2020. 

Only 9 percent of Trump voters in Arizona were “very confident” in the state’s election system, far lower than the 59 percent of Harris voters who said the same. 

Harris trails Trump by 5 points, 51 percent support to 46 percent, in Arizona, according to a recent New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College survey. In a September Fox News survey, Trump was ahead of the Democratic nominee by 3 points among likely Arizona voters, garnering 51 percent support to Harris's 48 percent. 

Trump currently has a 1.5 percentage point lead over Harris in Arizona, with 48.7 percent support to her 47.2 percent, according to the latest The Hill/Decision Desk HQ aggregate of polls. 

The CBS News poll was conducted Oct. 11-16 among 1,439 registered Arizona voters. The margin of error was 3.3 points.