Trump, Harris deadlocked nationally; VP up by 4 points in Pennsylvania: Poll

Former President Trump and Vice President Harris remain deadlocked, a pair of polls released Thursday, but the Democratic nominee maintains a four-point lead in the battleground state of Pennsylvania.

Trump and Harris each get 47 percent of likely voters’ support nationwide, while Harris leads Trump — 50 percent to 46 percent — in the Keystone State, according to new data from The New York Times, Siena College and Philadelphia Inquirer. The polling was conducted almost entirely before the former president was targeted Sunday in a second apparent assassination attempt.

Among registered voters nationally, Trump leads Harris by 1 point, 47 percent to 46 percent — a result that is little changed from a poll conducted a week before, in early September, which showed Trump leading by 2 points among registered voters nationally, 48 percent to 46 percent.

In late July, immediately after former President Biden ended his bid for the White House, the results were similar: Trump led Harris, 48 percent 46 percent, among registered voters. The results are all within the margins of error.

The latest poll of likely voters shows Harris maintaining a solid lead over Trump among women, with 53 percent support to his 41 percent. Among young adults, ages 18-29, the vice president garners 56 percent backing compared to the former president's 33 percent. Harris also brings in a majority, 77 percent, support from Black voters, compared to the 14 percent who back Trump, the polling found.

Trump, meanwhile, maintains a commanding lead nationally among men, with 52 percent backing him and 39 percent backing Harris. Among seniors, 65 years and older, he gets 50 percent support compared to Harris's 44 percent. The former president also garners 53 percent support from white voters, while 43 percent said they back Harris, the surveys showed.

In the Pennsylvania poll, Harris leads among similar demographic groups, with support from 57 percent of women, 61 percent of adults ages 18-29 and 82 percent of Black voters. Trump has support in the state from 53 percent of men and 51 percent of white voters.

Among seniors, however, the results are flipped, and Harris takes the lead over Trump, 50 percent to 47 percent, in the statewide poll.

Harris has also enjoyed a bump in her favorability ratings in Pennsylvania since early July. Today, 51 percent view her favorably, up from 42 percent in early July. Nationally, a similar 48 percent of likely voters have a favorable view of the vice president.

Trump’s favorability ratings have also improved nationally, with 47 percent seeing him favorably — a level higher than even when he was leading Biden earlier this year.

In The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s (DDHQ) national polling average, Harris leads by 3.6 points, 49.7 percent to Trump's 46.1 percent. In Pennsylvania, The vice president maintains a slim 1-point lead over the GOP presidential nominee, 48.8 percent to 47.8 percent, the DDHQ polling index shows.

The poll, conducted on Sept. 11 to 16, included interviews with 2,437 likely voters nationwide, including a poll of 1,082 voters in Pennsylvania. The margin of error for the national poll is 3 percentage points, and for the Pennsylvania poll it is 3.8 percentage points.