Harris holds slight leads in 5 battleground state surveys

Vice President Harris holds slight leads in head-to-head matchups against former President Trump in five of the seven main battleground states, though all are within the margin of error, in new polling from Cook Political Report. 

The surveys released Wednesday from the nonpartisan election handicapper showed Harris leading in Michigan by 3 points, in Arizona and Wisconsin by 2 points and in Nevada and Pennsylvania by 1 point. Trump led in Georgia by 2 points, and the candidates were tied in North Carolina. 

When third-party candidates were included in states where they are on the ballot, Harris takes a 3-point lead in North Carolina and expands her lead by 1 point in Arizona and Pennsylvania. Trump’s lead in Georgia ticks down to 1 point, while Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin are unchanged. 

The results are mostly in line with Cook’s last Swing State Project Survey from August and reemphasize just how close this year’s presidential race appears. The largest shifts in the head-to-head matchups came in Nevada, where Trump led by 3 points in the August survey, and Georgia, which was tied. 

Harris’s overall lead across all seven battlegrounds combined stayed at 1 point in the head-to-head matchup and 2 points with third-party candidates in the mix. 

But Cook’s Amy Walter and Jessica Taylor noted in their analysis of the results that the polling found shifts under the topline numbers on certain key issues and with certain demographics. 

Trump still leads on who voters trust more to handle the economy by 5 points, as he did in August, but he no longer leads on getting inflation under control. He and Harris were tied in the most recent survey, while he previously held a 6-point lead. 

This has occurred as polling found perceptions that inflation is getting worse have slightly declined. 

Trump still comfortably leads on handling the issue of immigration, considered one of the biggest potential vulnerabilities for Democrats, but the lead shrunk from 14 points to 9 points. 

In Trump’s favor, Harris’s lead among independents dropped from 8 points to just 2 points. 

Meanwhile, the potential for consequential split-ticket voting in these states appears to remain, with Democratic candidates for Senate leading in each state but by varying margins. 

Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) has a slight lead of 4 points over her Republican opponent, former Rep. Mike Rogers (R), in the Michigan Senate race, down from 8 points in August. Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey (D) leads Republican Dave McCormick by 7 points, but that’s down from 13 points in August. 

And Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) leads Republican Eric Hovde by 2 points, the same margin as Harris’s lead over Trump. 

Other states had larger margins for the Democrat. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) both have 13-point leads over their respective Republican opponents in the Arizona and Nevada Senate races, Kari Lake and Sam Brown, in the poll. 

North Carolina does not have a Senate race, but in the governor’s race, state Attorney General Josh Stein (D) leads Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson by a whopping 24 points in their matchup. Stein had already been polling with double-digit leads, but Robinson’s campaign has been left reeling after a CNN report on many inflammatory comments he reportedly made on a pornography website’s forum years ago. 

Whether the state will ultimately see more than 20 points of split-ticket voting between the presidential and gubernatorial race, which would be historically rare, remains to be seen. 

The poll was conducted from Sept. 19 to 25 across seven battleground states among 2,867 likely voters. The margin of error was 4.5 points in Pennsylvania, 4.8 points in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin and 4.9 points in Arizona and Nevada.