©  AP Photo/Nell Redmond/Chris Carlson

Vice President Harris’s campaign is rushing to address potential problem spots with key demographic groups that Democrats worry are drifting to the right with less than one month to go before Election Day.

Democrats are particularly concerned about Harris’s support among men, Latinos and white working class voters, as polls show former President Trump running even with Harris in the “Blue Wall” states that represent Harris’s likeliest path to the White House.

Democratic anxieties about Harris have spiked in recent weeks, as Harris has registered mediocre polling numbers and sat for some uneven media appearances.

Nate Silver’s forecast shows polling averages have ticked toward Trump ever so slightly over the past week, with the former president making small gains nationally and in every swing state with the exception of Georgia.

That shift is mostly around the margins and the underlying fundamentals of the race remain largely the same. The race is a tossup, and every battleground could fall in either direction.

CNN election analyst Harry Enten addressed the recent bout of Democratic “bedwetting”:

“The race is closer than it was 3 weeks ago in MI, PA, & WI. Way too close to call in all 3. Also, Harris is doing 6 points worse on avg. in them than Biden at this point in 2020.”

Here’s how Harris’s campaign is approaching some key demographic groups...

• Former President Obama made his big return to the campaign trail with a rally in Pennsylvania on Thursday. He had stern remarks for what he described as a lack of enthusiasm for Harris among Black men.
  
  
• “We have not yet seen the same kind of energy and turnout in all corners of our neighborhoods and communities as we saw when I was running… that seems to be more pronounced with the brothers…You’re coming up with all kinds of reasons and excuses. I’ve got a problem with that," Obama said. "Part of it makes me think that, well, you just aren’t feeling the idea of having a woman as president, and you’re coming up with other alternatives and other reasons for that.”
  
  
• Harris will appear on Charlamagne Tha God's show next week, which is popular with Black men.
  
  
• Obama will travel to Arizona and Nevada to encourage early voting.

A lot has been made about the gender gap and Harris’s big advantage among women. But Democrats are growingly increasingly concerned that Trump will more than make up for that gap with his advantage among men.

Via The Hill’s Amie Parnes: “Obama’s clarion call to his party gave breath to the nervousness Democrats have been feeling in recent days. If the party doesn’t figure out a way to close that gender gap with Trump among men, and if it cannot convince men of color to come out in droves for Harris, Trump will win reelection to another four years in office."

• Harris’s running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D), is launching a media blitz this weekend with a focus on appealing to men.
  
  
• Walz appeared Friday morning on “Good Morning America” with host and Super Bowl champion Michael Strahan.
  
  
• The Democratic VP nominee will return to Mankato West High School in Minnesota, where he was a teacher and football coach.
  
  
• Walz will attend a political event focused on Black male voters in Michigan.
  
  
• He'll mark the opening of pheasant hunting season by joining a group of online influencers for an early morning hunt in Sleepy Eye, Minn.
  
  
• Trump next week will sit for a Fox News town hall on women's issues.

Trump is also running stronger than expected among Latino voters, and Latino men in particular.

• At a Univision town hall in Las Vegas on Thursday night, Harris made her pitch on immigration, the economy and reproductive rights to viewers on the American Spanish-language network.
  
  
• The latest NBC News, Telemundo and CNBC poll found Harris with a 14 point lead among Latinos. Biden won Latinos by 36 points over Trump in 2020. A new Associated Press-NORC Center poll finds Latino women view Harris more positively than Latino men.

Here’s the latest average of polls from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ in the "Blue Wall" states:

MI: Trump +0.8

PA: Harris +0.6

WI: Trump +0.1

Democrats are concerned that Green Party candidate Jill Stein will draw votes away from Harris in these key battlegrounds. 

• A new ad airing in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania warns that a “a vote for Stein is really a vote for Trump.”

Perspectives:

CNN: Obama tries to close the deal for Harris.

The Hill: Harris is the choice for traditional conservatives.

The Wall Street Journal: Emperor Kamala’s new clothes.

The Hill: Walz is right, scrap the Electoral College.

The Weekly Dish: Trump is winning and Harris's media blitz didn't help.

The Hill: Trump’s ‘revival’ in Butler could be what seals his victory.

The Hill: 2024 is the first podcast election.

Read more:

• Harris walks fine line on immigration at Univision town hall.
• Obama slams Trump in Pennsylvania.
• ‘My position is the campaign’s position,’ Walz now says about Electoral College.
• Harris faces new battles with expanding Middle East conflict.
• Harris landed on the cover of Vogue.
• Julia Roberts stumps for Harris in Georgia.

Welcome to Evening Report! I'm Jonathan Easley, catching you up from the afternoon and what's coming tomorrow. Not on the list? Subscribe here.

• A judge will unseal additional filings from the Jan. 6 case against former President Trump, although Trump's attorneys plan to challenge the decision.
  
  

• Japanese atomic bomb survivors won the Nobel Peace Prize. 
  
  

• A rare comet will be visible in the night sky and won't return again for 80,000 years.

©  Kairat Kassymbekov via AP

President Biden will travel to Florida on Sunday to view damage from Hurricane Milton.

At least 16 people are dead and millions remain without power.

The White House did not say whether the president would meet with Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) on the trip.

• Biden has praised DeSantis’s leadership, even as the governor has been locked in a heated back-and-forth with Vice President Harris.
  
  
• The Hill’s Niall Stanage has the latest on the political fallout, including Trump’s efforts to politicize the government’s response to Hurricane Helene.

How might voting be impacted in the hardest hit states, including North Carolina, Georgia and Florida?

• The Associated Press reports that DeSantis “granted counties hardest hit by Helene greater flexibility in distributing mail-in ballots and changing polling sites for in-person voting.”
  
  
• A judge in Georgia declined to extend a voting registration deadline due to Helene.
  
  

There are growing concerns that mail disruptions due to the hurricanes could be an issue, as the ongoing humanitarian crisis in western North Carolina might make it difficult for some people to get to the polls.

• The Wall Street Journal has the latest from North Carolina, where about 1.3 million live in the hardest hit region of the state: “Some voting sites in Henderson County, just south of the hard-hit Asheville, can’t be reached because of sinkholes or washed-out bridges. Other locations are being used as shelters or distribution sites for food and water.”

More broadly, changes implemented during the pandemic to normalize early voting are growing in popularity.

• Gallup reports that 40 percent say they plan to vote early.
  
  
• Voting by mail also remains popular, NPR reports.

Amid the devastation, there are some hopeful stories coming out of the southeast as it recovers from back-to-back hurricanes:

• Polk County police in Florida helped deliver a baby at the height of the storm.
• A dog found tied to a pole in Florida has been given a fitting new name at a rescue facility.
• The Coast Guard rescued a man clinging to a cooler in Sarasota.

Perspectives:

The Guardian: Trump’s hurricane lies.

The New York Post: Even Biden can’t stomach Harris’s spat with DeSantis.

Read more:

• ‘Gators, stingrays, snakes’: Floridians urged to avoid floodwaters.
• Tampa Bay Rays announcer describes ‘devastating’ damage to Tropicana Field.
• Here’s how to qualify for FEMA aid — including the $750 payment.

©  Associated Press

• The three Democratic governors of the “Blue Wall” states — Gretchen Whitmer (Mich.), Josh Shapiro (Pa.) and Tony Evers (Wis.) — will embark on a bus tour this weekend aimed at energizing Harris’s supporters to get out to the polls.
  
  
• Whitmer landed in hot water Friday for recreating a viral TikTok stunt with a popular Canadian podcaster, Liz Plank.
  
  Whitmer, wearing a camouflage Harris-Walz campaign hat, placed a Dorito on the tongue of Plank, who was on her knees in a video meant to highlight President Biden’s CHIPS Act.
  
  This infuriated the Catholic League, which accused Whitmer of ridiculing the Eucharist. There are nearly 1.8 million Catholics in Michigan across seven dioceses.
  
  “We are pulling out all the stops on this one. In addition to our big list of email subscribers, the Catholic League staff will send this news release to every Catholic parish in Michigan. We will blanket the Michigan media. We will contact every member of the Michigan legislature. We will also feature her stunt on the front page of the November issue of our monthly journal, Catalyst. What Whitmer did is political suicide."
  
  
• Trump ran into his own controversy on Thursday in Detroit, where he bashed the condition of the city in front of economic leaders there.
  
  “Our whole country will end up being like Detroit if she’s your president. You’re going to have a mess on your hands,” Trump said.
  
  The Harris campaign cut the remarks into an ad and Walz pounced on the remarks during a campaign event in nearby Macomb County.
  
  “Maybe if he ever spent any time in the Midwest, he’d know Detroit is experiencing a great American comeback,” Walz said. “Crime is down. The city is growing. Factories are opening again. But all these guys know about manufacturing is how to manufacture bulls‑‑‑.”
  
  
• Trump is speaking in Aurora, Colo. on Friday, highlighting immigrant gangs and what he describes as a failure of migrants to assimilate in the community. Trump has called Aurora a "war zone" and warned of an influx of violent Venezuelan prison gang members from Tren de Aragua. Local officials have challenged his claims.
  
  
• Sen. JD Vance repeatedly refused to answer a question about whether Trump lost the election in 2020. The New York Times's Lulu Garcia-Navarro asked him five times in a recent podcast.
  
  
• The Hill’s Al Weaver reports: “Senate candidates this cycle are largely steering clear of the debate stage, in some cases avoiding it altogether, marking a major change from past years as campaigns question the debates’ importance.”
  
  However, Democrat Angela Alsobrooks and former Gov. Larry Hogan (R-Md.) are among the exceptions. They squared off on Thursday night in a must-win race for Democrats if they hope to have any chance at a majority. The Hill has your five takeaways here. Hogan is casting himself as a moderate who will break with Trump and Republicans if elected in the deep blue state.
  
  
• The Hill’s Alexander Bolton has an interesting interview with Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), who detailed how conservatives plan to exert more power over the Senate GOP conference if they win back the majority in November. That means cutting back the amount of power the next GOP leader will have in order to empower the rank-and-file.
  
  
• The Associated Press reports that the battle over control of the House might come down to a few swing districts in deep blue California.

"The rage of Google," by Matt Stoller for The BIG Newsletter. 

"The Supreme Court sends an encouraging signal on ghost guns," by The Editorial Board for The Chicago Sun Times. — Author 2 (Read here)

"How America's pro-worker candidates can deliver," by Lila Malagashvili and Jonathan Wolfson for The Hill.

Credit: AP

Here’s who’s coming up on the Sunday shows:

NewsNation “The Hill Sunday”: Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.); Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.); David Rubenstein discusses new book "The Highest Calling."

FOX “Fox News Sunday”: GOP vice presidential candidate Sen. JD Vance (Ohio); Democratic vice presidential candidate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz; FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell.

CBS "Sunday Morning": Journalist Bob Woodward talks about his latest book "War."

CBS “Face the Nation”: House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.); Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.).

NBC “Meet the Press”: Johnson; former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.).

ABC “This Week”: Vance; Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D); Criswell.

–Compiled by The Hill's Elizabeth Crisp.

25 days until the 2024 general election.   

101 days until Inauguration Day 2025.

Saturday

• Trump campaigns in Coachella, Calif.

Sunday

• Trump campaigns in Prescott Valley, Ariz.

There a story you think should be getting more attention? Something people should be talking about? Drop me a line: [email protected]

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