Election forecaster moves Pelota, Steele reelection bids to tossups

The election forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball has shifted two key House races into toss-ups, moving Rep. Mary Peltola’s (D) seat in Alaska away from Democrats and Rep. Michelle Steel’s (R) seat in California away from Republicans. 

Forecasters were “impressed” that Peltola won more than 50 percent of the vote in Alaska’s all-party, top-four primary last month. But after a Trump-backed GOP candidate dropped out of the race, Peltola’s headed into the ranked-choice general election against Republican Nick Begich and two smaller-profile candidates for the Last Frontier State’s sole House seat.  

What’s more, Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system was first used just two years ago, when Peltola won the seat, and some in the state are already trying to repeal it — adding to the shift toward tossup status in the red state. 

In California, Republican Steel represents the Orange County 45th Congressional District, which President Biden won in 2020. Some recent internal polls from Democrats have shown a tight race, contributing to the shift. The forecasters also note that Steel faces Democrat Derek Tran, a Vietnamese-American, in a district with a significant Vietnamese population.

But as those California and Alaska seats move to the middle, Sabato’s is also shifting two House seats out of toss-up status. 

An open seat in the Golden State, the 47th Congressional district being vacated by Rep. Katie Porter (D), moves into the “leans Democratic” column. There, state Sen. Dave Min (D) will face Republican Scott Baugh (R) in the general election, now less than two months away.

Rep. Mike Lawler’s (R) seat in New York’s 17th Congressional District moves to the right, becoming “leans Republican,” as some polling shows Lawler ahead of former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D).

Lastly, Rep. Derrick Van Orden’s (R) seat in Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District is softening from “likely” to “leans Republican,” after new polling put Democrat Rebecca Cooke up ahead, suggesting a more competitive race than expected.

Sabato's lists 19 total seats as toss-ups, roughly split between Democrats and Republicans.

It's a razor-tight race for the lower chamber as the House GOP fights to hold their narrow majority this fall, and the battle could come down to just a few key districts.