Cook shifts five House races toward Democrats

The nonpartisan group Cook Political Report has shifted five House races toward Democrats, marking a new sign of momentum for the party in the Midwest. 

Two Iowa races have moved into toss-up territory, as Democrats look to oust Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) in the Hawkeye State’s 1st Congressional District and Rep. Zach Nunn (R) in the 3rd. An analysis from the election handicapper notes Miller-Meeks is a “uniquely weak” incumbent, and points to strong fundraising from Nunn’s Democratic challenger. 

The pair of Iowa races join just 25 toss-up races nationwide, according to Cook’s ratings, as both parties battle for control of the lower chamber. 

In Illinois and Indiana, contests for two Democratic incumbents have solidified from “lean” to “likely” blue. Rep. Eric Sorensen (D) is running for reelection in Illinois’s 17th Congressional District, and Rep. Frank J. Mrvan (D) in Indiana’s 1st. Vice President Harris looks set to win both districts "by a healthy margin," Cook noted, boosting the Democrats down ballot. 

And the race for Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke’s seat in Montana’s 1st Congressional District has softened from “likely” to “lean” Republican. Zinke’s challenger, Democrat Monica Tranel, came close to an upset in the midterms, and though Zinke still has the fundraising edge, some polling suggests a closer than expected race. A win in the House could be a needed boost for Montana Democrats as they fight to defend their highly vulnerable Sen. Jon Tester (D).  

The latest updates in Democrats' favor come after Cook shifted half a dozen House races toward Democrats and two toward Republicans last month, with 15 toss-up contests for seats currently held by Republicans and 11 for seats held by Democrats.

The GOP has a slim hold on the House, and Democrats need to net only four seats to take the majority this fall.

A forecast model from Decision Desk HQ gives Republicans a 71 percent chance of winning the Senate, but just a slim 55 percent chance of winning the House. 

Meanwhile, Harris and former President Trump are locked in a competitive presidential race. The latest polling averages from DDHQ and The Hill put Harris up roughly 3 points nationwide, with 50 percent to Trump’s 47 percent. They’re separated by a fraction of a percentage point in several key battlegrounds.