Casey up by 4 points over McCormick in Senate reelection bid: Survey

Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey (D) is up 4 points in his Senate reelection bid over Republican rival Dave McCormick, according to a new survey.

The survey, from AARP, found the incumbent Democrat garnering 49 percent support from likely voters to McCormick’s 45 percent. Six percent of likely voters said they were “undecided” or chose someone else.

The Pennsylvania Senate race between Casey and McCormick is one of multiple closely-watched races for the upper chamber this year, with Democrats hoping to maintain control and Republicans wanting to flip it. 

In an average of Pennsylvania polls from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ, Casey is sitting at 47.9 percent support to McCormick’s 43.8 percent.

Pennsylvania isn’t just a key state for possibly determining who controls the Senate in this year’s election. It could also determine who wins the presidency.

The AARP survey found Vice President Harris up by 2 points over former President Trump in the Keystone State, with the vice president earning 49 percent support from likely voters to the former president’s 47 percent. 

According to an average of Pennsylvania polls from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ, Harris is ahead of Trump in the Keystone by only 0.6 points.

The AARP survey took place from Sep. 17 and 24, featuring 1,398 likely voters, 600 of them being part of a statewide representative sample, as well as 470 likely voters “50 and older” and 328 Black likely voters in the same age range as oversamples.

The statewide representative sample had a margin of sampling error at the 95 percent confidence level of plus or minus 4 percentage points, the group of 800 voters 50 and older had a margin of sampling error at the same confidence level of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points and the group of 400 Black voters had a margin of sampling error at the same confidence level of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.