Happy Thursday! “On October 3rd, he asked me what day it was. ‘It's October 3rd.’” Here’s what’s happening:

• Biden and Harris are dealing with three major legacy-threatening challenges.
• Trump and Vance are testing out a softer abortion message. Plus, Melania Trump posted a video expressing strong support for abortion rights (!).
• Biden is visiting Georgia and Florida today.
• Have you been following the Whole Foods Chantilly cake drama? The original cake is returning due to public outrage. 
  
  

I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Send tips, commentary, feedback and cookie recipes to [email protected]. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here.  

PROGRAMMING NOTE: I’m taking a long weekend and will be off until Wednesday. The Hill’s Liz Crisp will be guest-writing the 12:30 Report. See you next week!

The past week has presented a trifecta of compounding challenges for the White House, both domestically and internationally, writes The Hill’s Alex Gangitano.

1. Port workers are striking, which could be strongly felt in the economy.
2. Fighting in the Middle East has escalated, specifically when Iran fired roughly 200 missiles at Israel.
3. Hurricane Helene has destroyed parts of the Southeast.

This is high stakes for Harris: Vice President Harris is tied to the Biden administration. She has both the opportunity and responsibility to convince voters she can lead during these crises. But depending on how each of these challenges plays out — and some of that is out of Harris’s control — they could negatively affect her on Election Day. October is an incredibly important month for presidential campaigns.

Polling is already so tight: Harris and former President Trump are basically tied nationally. Harris is leading Trump by just 4.2 percentage points, according to The Hill and Decision Desk HQ’s polling average. That’s just outside the margin of error.

Biden and Harris have been visiting the Southeast: Biden is in Georgia and Florida today and received an emergency briefing earlier this week. Harris traveled to Georgia earlier this week and also met with Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) officials for a briefing.

Read more on how this could shake out: ‘Trifecta of challenges unravel for Harris, White House ahead of Election Day’

Former President Trump and Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) are attempting to soften their stance on abortion in the final month before the election.

How?: During the VP debate, Trump announced that he would veto any national ban if it came to his desk as president. In the past, he’s refused to say what he would do in that situation.

Why?: Abortion rights are fairly popular among Americans, and it’s been an effective campaign platform for Democrats. Trump and Vance are hoping to blunt that message.

💡 Why this matters: There’s some risk in softening their abortion stances, but it’s a calculated risk. Trump could anger anti-abortion voters, but he’s betting that they’ll still vote for him anyway. However, those voters could choose to stay home, and that could affect Republicans up and down the ballot.

🚨 NEW — Melania is jumping into the discussion: Former first lady Melania Trump released a new video expressing her support for abortion rights. 

“Individual freedom is a fundamental principle that I safeguard. Without a doubt, there is no room for compromise when it comes to these essential rights that all women possess from birth. Individual freedom. What does ‘my body, my choice’ really mean?” she said in a video posted to X. 📹 Watch the video

Keep in mind: This video was a tease for her upcoming memoir, which will come out Tuesday.

🔷 The Trump campaign says it raised $160 million in donations in September.

🔷 43 million people watched the VP debate. For reference, more than 67 million people watched the Trump-Harris brawl.

🔷 In an interview with NewsNation, Trump says he’d revoke protected status for Haitian migrants and remove them from Springfield, Ohio.

Special counsel Jack Smith’s massive, 165-page court filing was unsealed Wednesday, laying out his election interference case against former President Trump after the Supreme Court ruled that former presidents have criminal immunity.

What we’ve learned: “The monster filing offers a window into the case Smith has assembled against Trump, providing more details about the bulk of evidence assembled by prosecutors than was revealed in their 45-page indictment last year. Chutkan did not, however, unseal several exhibits containing evidence such as grand jury transcripts.”

For example: “In particular, the filing reveals new evidence of the former president’s efforts to sway election officials in key swing states to overturn their states’ election results in his favor.”

🔎 Read the unsealed court filing

How the Trump campaign reacted: Trump spokesperson Steven Cheung called the brief “falsehood-ridden” and “unconstitutional.” He also suggested that it was intentionally released to overshadow Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz’s (D) “disastrous” debate performance on Tuesday.

‘5 revelations from unprecedented filing in Trump Jan. 6 case’: From The Hill

©  AP

When we think of hurricanes, we think of coastal flooding and destruction. But North Carolina mountains are becoming the new “hurricane alley,” according to The New York Times.

This is a sad but important fact: “Most of the deaths from Hurricane Helene occurred far from Florida, where the storm first made landfall.”

Keep in mind: “The heavy toll of hurricanes far away from the coastline is not new or surprising — or even that infrequent, as a warming climate supercharges storms with heavier rainfall. From 2013 to 2022, more than half of deaths attributed to tropical cyclones were caused by inland flooding, according to the National Hurricane Center.”

What we can do with this information: More emergency planning. These mountainous regions can make it hard to reach residents because of poor cell phone coverage. Plus: “What hasn’t caught up is the way that inland residents often view the risks of hurricanes and their aftermath. Many still tend to underreact to warnings, imagining themselves at a safe distance from hurricanes’ worst dangers.”

🔎 Read more on the outreach and what can be improved

📹 Oh gosh: Look at this time-lapse of a front porch

📹 And this side-by-side comparison: Of a street in Chimney Rock, N.C. 📹 Watch

📹 A building floated down the river: Thankfully, it just barely missed this apartment. 📹 Watch

Is there help for North Carolina?: The New York Times reports that FEMA is helping but is having trouble reaching some areas. Read: ‘After Flooding, FEMA Aid Is Arriving. But Some Are Still on Their Own.’

🍮 Celebrate: Today is National Caramel Custard Day!

🍰 I’ve been on Chantilly cake TikTok, and it’s DRAMATIC: Whole Foods has a berry Chantilly cake with a serious cult following. Well, the grocery chain tried changing the recipe, and fans are furious. Here’s a catch-up on the saga

Ayyy, the pressure campaign worked!: Delish reports that Whole Foods is bringing back the original cake after the backlash.

The House and Senate are out. President Biden is in Florida and Georgia today. Vice President Harris is in Wisconsin and then Michigan. (all times Eastern)

• 12:50 p.m.: Biden receives an operational briefing in Keaton Beach, Fla.
• 3 p.m.: Former President Trump campaigns in Saginaw, Mich. 💻 Livestream
• 4:05 p.m.: Biden tours areas in Ray City, Ga., that were impacted by Hurricane Helene.
• 4:15 p.m.: Biden delivers remarks in Ray City. 💻 Livestream
• 6 p.m.: Harris campaigns with former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) in Ripon, Wis. Keep in mind that Ripon is the birthplace of the Republican Party(!) 💻 Livestream
• 7:25 p.m.: Biden returns to the White House.
• 8:35 p.m.: Harris lands in Detroit.

I believe this is peak serotonin.